Not many are aware that the recent decision by the DAP to scrub plans for a snap election in Penang was the result of a disagreement between the party’s secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, and PKR vice president Nurul Izzah.
Last Sunday, Guan Eng told a press conference that the issue concerned a proposal from PKR that that the DAP found unacceptable.
“A proposal was made for DAP to give up one or two of our existing state seats to PKR to make the proposal more acceptable to the PKR leadership, however we stated that this was not feasible,” he said.
On July 20, a PKR delegation led by Nurul called in to Guan Eng’s office at Komtar.
They then proceeded to convene a meeting, in which Nurul proposed that the DAP assign one or two of its seats to PKR in the event a snap poll was called for.
In return, she assured him that her party would support his snap election proposal and help DAP in its campaign.
There were, of course, some other details that ‘slipped Guan Eng’s mind’.
In other words, what Guan Eng told the Sunday press conference was a truth of omission, which essentially, is a whole lie.
He failed to bring to everyone’s attention the bigger elephant that was in the room.
That elephant, incidentally, is the reason why he so desperately needed PKR to support his snap poll proposal.
But first, let us delve into the question of seat allocations, since it was that which sparked a disagreement between Guan Eng and Nurul.
As you all may already know, the current Penang state assembly has 40 members – 29 from Pakatan Harapan and 10 from Umno / Barisan Nasional (BN).
The remaining rep in the assembly is from PAS.
Now, out of Pakatan’s 29 seats, 19 belong to the DAP and the remaining, to PKR.
Let us work with the hypothesis that the DAP dissolves the state assembly and ‘hands over’ two of its seats to PKR for contest.
That means, the DAP would be left with 17 seats to defend.
Now, if you were to ask me, the odds of PKR winning two ‘additional seats’ in Penang are next to impossible.
Lest we forget, PAS has already declared that it will contest every seat the state has to offer in the event a poll is triggered.
What this means, is that every seat PKR contests would ultimately result in three cornered fights, to say the least.
Rest assured, both the DAP and PKR can cast aside hopes of wresting any seat from Umno – neither would stand a chance.
By this reasoning, let us focus only on seats that Pakatan harapan currently holds in Penang.
Given the level of decay in PKR politics, the split in its leadership and the fact that all of its contests would be three cornered fights, it wouldn’t be too farfetched to say that PKR would concede defeat to Umno in eight constituencies, including the two it ‘stole’ from the DAP.
Come to think of it, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were to lose even more seats.
Under the circumstances, the new state assembly would have a composition looking like this: DAP – 17 seats; PKR – 4 seats; PAS – 1 seat and Umno – 18 seats.
Do you see the problem?
Pakatan Harapan’s margin against UMNO would nosedive from the current 19 seat advantage it has to a measly three seats surplus.
The thought of that happening sent a chill down Guan Eng’s spine, because those are the exact number of seats Umno would need to form a BN government.
Remember the 2009 Perak crisis?
Despite having a three seat advantage to BN, the Pakatan Rakyat run state government collapsed a little over a year after it formed owing to defections by PKR and DAP assemblypersons.
In 2013, the coalition did not even come close to regaining control of the state.
Guan Eng’s biggest fear is a repeat of the 2009 Perak crisis, only this time, in Penang.
Currently, the majority of DAP assemblymen in Penang are fuming that he refused to make way for Chow Kon Yeow to become Chief Minister (refer http://www.malaysia-today.net/guan-eng-tells-another-lie-the-mother-of-them-all/).
They’re ready to trigger a coup at any moment – rumour is, plans are being contrived as we speak.
With a three seat margin, Guan Eng worried that the DAP central executive committee (CEC) would turn the results against him and force him to resign as chief minister.
Worse, he knew that PKR assemblymen could never be trusted for two cents and could easily be ‘bought over’ by BN.
However, that was not the only dilemma staring him in the face on the July 20.
On that day, Nurul threw a surprise proposal to his face that must have given him a near heart attack.
She wanted both Penang and Selangor to hold elections concurrently.
Source: Malaysia Today