Yesterday, PKR’s Rafizi Ramli came out with his analysis for the next general election.
Before I could respond to what I thought was a very amateur analysis, Ibrahim Suffian a.k.a. Ben of Merdeka Centre responded first.
I was told Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali was not too pleased with Rafizi’s revelation.
He, too, thought it was a silly analysis based on ‘we will win if they vote for us and we will lose if they do not vote for us’ scenario.
Any idiot knows that: you will win if you get the votes but not if you don’t get the votes.
What type of analysis is that?
Rafizi’s analysis comes in two scenarios: Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
In Scenario 1 the opposition would win 126 parliament seats while Barisan Nasional would win only 96 seats.
In Scenario 2 Barisan Nasional would win 130 parliament seats while the opposition would win only 92 seats.
So it is either 130: 92 or 96:126 Barisan versus Pakatan.
What is most interesting is that in both scenarios PAS is not going to win a single seat: zero seats.
So what Rafizi is telling us is that PAS is not going to be a member of both coalitions – Barisan as well as Pakatan – and is going to be a solo party.
In short, Rafizi is saying that PAS is going to get totally wiped out.
Further to that, both scenarios depend on Pakatan garnering 90% of the Chinese votes.
Rafizi does not have a Scenario 3 because he is sure that Pakatan was going to get 90% of the Chinese votes.
I think Rafizi is overlooking one fact.
That one fact is PAS has about a million registered members and many more ‘silent’ members, mainly government servants who support PAS but are not card-bearing members.
In the 1999 general election, PAS garnered one million votes versus DAP’s and PKR’s 800,000 votes each.
In 2004, PAS increased its votes to 1.1 million versus DAP’s 700,000 and PKR’s 600,000.
In the 2008, ‘Chinese Tsunami’, PAS still garnered 1.14 million votes versus PKR’s 1.5 million and DAP’s 1.1 million.
In 2013, PAS won 1.6 million votes versus PKR’s 2.2 million and DAP’s 1.7 million.
So how can you assume that PAS is going to get zero seats when it has consistently maintained its voter base of one million?
In the 2009 by-election in Kuala Terengganu, PAS won that parliament seat.
It won it again in the 2013 general election.
Kuala Terengganu can be considered an urban seat although located in the East Coast.
In the real rural seats, the PAS supporters are diehards and do not switch parties that easily.
Even if Pakatan can really steal 38% of the PAS votes it will not be across the board like Rafizi suggests but will be in pockets.
It is not going to be consistently 38% in every single seat, something that Rafizi does not seem to realise.
Anyway, this looks like Rafizi’s weak attempt at playing the psywar game.
If this is his best psywar strategy then he needs another few years to master that game before he comes out with his so-called election analyses like the one he did yesterday.
Even if you are attempting psywar you have to make it believable.
If not then you will begin to lose credibility, not that Rafizi has much to start with.
The Kajang Move is just one example of a failed psywar game.
That one fiasco alone destroyed his credibility.
Then Rafizi came out with one spin after another and all ended up in crash and burn.
Yesterday’s election analysis ‘disaster’ made even Azmin cringe in pain.
Actually Azmin and not Rafizi should have been the one to issue this statement.
After all Azmin is the one who has to deliver whatever Rafizi promised the voters (which is PAS is going to get wiped out and will not win a single seat in the next general election).
Rafizi has raised the bar and Azmin now has to jump over that impossibly high bar and most likely break his neck in the attempt.
Is Rafizi setting Azmin up for a fall?
PAS needs to get totally wiped out in the next general election.
There is no way PAS can be allowed to win even a single seat.
If not Azmin would be seen as a failure.
So, if PAS ends up winning 20 or 30 seats, then Azmin needs to be crucified upside down and left to die.
Hmm…maybe Rafizi is not so stupid after all as we thought.
Maybe his real target is not PAS but Azmin.
Is Rafizi setting an impossible target that he knows Azmin cannot achieve just so that Azmin’s chances of going against Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail in the next party election would diminish?
Going by what he initially said about the Kajang Move, Rafizi could actually be saying one thing but trying to achieve another. – Malaysia Today