DAP faces bleak future due to depreciating Chinese votes

 |Apr 18, 2017

Many Chinese are angry about the DAP’s December 15, 2012 fraudulent party election.

So DAP might even lose some Chinese votes because of that.

Therefore it will not be surprising if DAP garners only 1.5 million votes in the next general election.

If PKR wins about two million votes with only about one million or less for Amanah and Pribumi combined, Umno and Barisan Nasional are going to get back their two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Lim Kit Siang knows that the DAP internal poll in December 2012 was fraudulent.

For more than 50 years Lim Kit Siang has been singing the same old song.

Malaysia is a failed state. Malaysia is a rogue state.

Malaysia is going bankrupt very soon.

Malaysia is a secular state.

The sharia violates the Federal Constitution of Malaysia.

Malaysia needs to be saved.

To save Malaysia, Umno and its coalition partners must be ousted and replaced with DAP and its coalition partners.

Chinese mantra

Now Kit Siang has added a new catch-phrase to his mantra: kleptocracy.

What Kit Siang does not realise is that he is a kleptocrat while DAP is a kleptocracy.

On December 15, 2012, Kit Siang and his cronies stole the party by rigging the party election.

They had to make sure that Tan Seng Giaw and his team did not win so they had to rig the party election.

DAP was formed two months after Singapore separated from Malaysia and when PAP could no longer legally operate in Malaysia.

DAP admitted at that time that it was basically PAP’s front or nominee in Malaysia.

Today, of course, DAP denies that because it can no longer gain any political mileage out of its Singapore link like it did in the years 1965 to 1969.

DAP depends mainly on the Chinese votes.

Hence it plays to the Chinese gallery and issues such as Chinese schools, Chinese education, anti-sharia, anti-Islam, anti-Umno, anti-Bahasa Malaysia, anti-national schools, life is far better in Singapore, and so on, are very crucial to the party’s survival.

In 1969, DAP won 12% of the popular votes.

In 1974, it won 18% of the votes.

In 1978 and 1982, it was 19%.

In 1986, it increased to 21% and dropped to 17% in 1990 when it went to bed with Semangat 46.

In 1995, DAP’s votes dropped further to just 12%.

In 1999, it remained at 12% even against the backdrop of ‘Reformasi’.

In 2004, after DAP left the opposition coalition, Barisan Alternatif, its votes dropped to just 10%.

Then came the ‘Chinese Tsunami’ and DAP’s votes in 2008 increased a bit to 14% and in 2013 another 1% to 15%.

So there you have it – 1969 to 2013 – DAP’s vote-share hovers between 10% at worst and 21% at best.

The best years were in the mid-1980s when the economic recession hit and the government had to bail out the Chinese cooperatives to the tune of RM3 billion (worth about RM9 billion today).

1975-1978 was another recession period when DAP’s vote-share was about 18%-19%.

In short, when times are bad, the Chinese vote DAP and when times are good, they vote Barisan Nasional.

That is why DAP needs to keep playing up ‘Malaysia is a failed state’, ‘Malaysia is going bankrupt’, etc., issues.

They need the Chinese to feel that the economy is going bust so that they will vote opposition.

DAP knows that to the Chinese it is all about money (which is why the Chinese migrated to Malaya in the first place: because of money).

As long as the Chinese have money in their pockets they will support the government.

DAP political future depends heavily on Chinese votes.

Chinese votes

If you were to look at the trend and track record from 1969 to 2013, you can see that DAP has squeezed every ounce it can out of the Chinese vote-bank and there is hardly any more they can squeeze.

The 2008 and 2013 general elections were the height and all DAP could get was 14%-15%.

DAP is proud that one million Malaysians have left Malaysia, the majority of them Chinese.

But then this is a double-edged knife.

That also means even if 100% of the Malaysian Chinese vote for DAP the best they can get is just 16% of the popular vote and no longer more than 20% like in the late 1970s and 1980s (unless the one million overseas Malaysians all return to Malaysia to vote).

But then you must remember that Malaysia’s population in 1978 was just 12 million and merely 3.5 million came out to vote.

Today it is 30 million and most likely 12-13 million will be coming out to vote in the next election.

So, 50% of the Chinese votes in 1978 had more value than 100% of the Chinese votes today.

In short, Chinese voters are an endangered species and its worth diminishes over time.

So, if DAP’s survival depends on Chinese votes, then DAP is going to be extinct by 2065 when it celebrates its 100th Anniversary.

Kit Siang knows that depending just on the Chinese voters is futile.

It needs the non-Chinese votes as well.

But then Kit Siang and DAP have antagonised most Malays-Muslims who would rather vote for Umno or PAS.

That means PKR, PAN and Pribumi have to also depend on the Chinese voters.

If that is how the game has to be played, then at best the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan can expect would be about 50-60 parliament seats instead of 125 like how Rafizi Ramli predicted (because Rafizi’s prediction is based on half the Malays abandoning Umno and PAS).

DAP leadership elected during the internal party poll held in Penang on December 15, 2012.

In Karpal’s memory

Kit Siang is now trying to shift the focus and play up the memory of Karpal Singh.

But then there are two problems with this.

First would be that the Malays-Muslims remember Karpal’s ‘over my dead body’ comment in his opposition to the sharia.

Secondly, while Kit Siang sings Karpal’s praises, Karpal on the other hand condemned Kit Siang, Guan Eng, Anwar Ibrahim and all those others whom Karpal viewed as unprincipled politicians.

So, in the next general election, DAP is not going to garner more than two million votes or 14%-15% of the popular votes like it did in 2008 and 2013.

PKR, Amanah and Pribumi will then be under pressure to try to garner five million votes if Pakatan Harapan hopes to defeat Barisan Nasional.

Most likely PKR will be able to garner 2.5 million votes at best while Amanah and Pribumi will need to get another 2.5 million votes combined to make up for the shortfall.

If they cannot do this then Umno and Barisan Nasional will still be in power.

Then there is the problem of DAP’s December 15, 2012 fraudulent party election.

Many Chinese are angry about this and DAP might even lose some Chinese votes because of that.

Therefore it will not be surprising if DAP garners only 1.5 million votes in the next general election.

If PKR wins about two million with only about one million for Amanah and Pribumi combined, Umno and Barisan Nasional are going to get back their two-thirds majority in Parliament. – Malaysia Today

SHARE
Raja Petra Kamarudin or RPK, cousin to the Selangor Sultan, is one of Malaysia's earliest online 'citizen journalists'. He started his website in 1995 before the internet 'explosion' triggered by the Reformasi movement in September 1998. Malaysia Today was launched as a blog in August 2004 and is one of the few pioneer blogs still active and posting articles on a daily basis 24-7. RPK, 66 years old, has been writing since 1990.